![\"Manhattan](\"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/18\/2018\/06\/gmat-critical-reasoning-arguments-predict-future-chelsey-cooley.png\")
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GMAT Critical Reasoning is repetitive. The arguments in GMAT Critical Reasoning problems might be dressed up differently\u2014one is about local politics, another is about business\u2014but, under the surface, the arguments use the same tricks over and over again. If you learn to spot these tricks, you\u2019ll also learn to spot the right answer. (You\u2019ll also start poking holes in every argument you hear, which is a great way to make new friends.)<\/span><\/p>\n We\u2019ve already looked at two types of GMAT Critical Reasoning arguments: <\/span>arguments that explain why something happened<\/span><\/a>, and <\/span>arguments that discuss costs and benefits<\/span><\/a>. Here\u2019s a third type: arguments that predict the future. If you\u2019re reading a GMAT Critical Reasoning problem and the conclusion says that something <\/span>will<\/span><\/i> or <\/span>should<\/span><\/i> happen, this is the type of argument you\u2019re dealing with. Here\u2019s an example:<\/span><\/p>\n The computer company iTech is known to aggressively recruit engineers from other local technology companies. But even though a number of senior engineers at Microcomp have left their positions for iTech jobs in the six months since the local iTech office opened, it is unlikely that those positions will remain open for long. In the last five years, none of Microcomp\u2019s job listings have gone unfilled for more than a few weeks. <\/span><\/p>\n The author is pretty sure that the vacant senior engineer positions will be filled quickly. You, as the reader of this argument, should be rolling your eyes. Nobody can predict the future, and the author is no exception.<\/span><\/p>\n There are two major ways that a prediction can go wrong. One, every time a GMAT Critical Reasoning argument predicts the future, the author is <\/span>assuming that nothing surprising will happen<\/b>. For instance: <\/span><\/p>\n If any of these things happened, it would get much harder to fill the senior engineer positions, and the prediction would no longer make sense. If you\u2019re working with a GMAT Critical Reasoning argument that predicts the future, remember that <\/span>anything could change<\/b>\u2014think about the changes that might make the prediction fail to come true. <\/span><\/p>\n Also, every time the author of an argument predicts the future, they\u2019re basing that prediction on something. For instance, the Microcomp prediction is based on what\u2019s happened in the past. Positions got filled quickly in the past, so they\u2019re likely to be filled quickly in the future. But what if that reasoning doesn\u2019t actually make sense?<\/span><\/p>\n In either of these scenarios, the prediction is now based on faulty reasoning. If it\u2019s easy to fill non-engineering positions, you can\u2019t necessarily assume it\u2019ll be easy to fill engineering positions. If it\u2019s easy to hire new employees in a tough job market, it might be harder in a better market. <\/span><\/p>\n Check out another predict-the-future argument. Try to spot the flawed reasoning behind the prediction:<\/span><\/p>\n A certain country has historically relied primarily on imported food to feed its populace, since the poor soil quality and low rainfall across almost all regions of the country have made it difficult or impossible to grow food crops. However, due to new irrigation and fertilization technologies, more food crops are being grown domestically each year, and a number of beef cattle farming operations have been successfully established in areas that were not otherwise being used to produce food. Therefore, the country should require less imported food over the coming decade. <\/span><\/p>\n The prediction: the country won\u2019t need to import as much food in the future. The rationale: we\u2019re growing more food, and we\u2019re feeding the population in other ways, too. It makes sense\u2014but, since it\u2019s a GMAT Critical Reasoning argument, there\u2019s definitely a problem. <\/span><\/p>\n So, where\u2019s the flaw? The author makes a prediction about how much food the country will need, based on how much food the country is <\/span>producing<\/span><\/i>. But he\u2019s left something out: how much food the country is <\/span>using<\/span><\/i>. If the population increases, or if the need for food increases for some other reason, the prediction no longer makes sense. So, his prediction is based on incomplete reasoning. <\/span><\/p>\n Whenever you see an argument that predicts the future, ask yourself two questions. First, what happens if things change in the future? Second, exactly what is that prediction based on\u2014and does that reasoning actually make sense? Predicting the future is hard, so arguments that try to do so will inevitably have some serious issues\u2014spot these issues, and use them to find the right answer to your GMAT Critical Reasoning problem. ?<\/span><\/p>\n Want more guidance from our GMAT gurus? You can attend the first session of any of our online or in-person GMAT courses absolutely free! We\u2019re not kidding.\u00a0<\/i><\/b>Check out our upcoming courses here<\/i><\/b><\/a>.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n Chelsey Cooley<\/a> GMAT Critical Reasoning is repetitive. The arguments in GMAT Critical Reasoning problems might be dressed up differently\u2014one is about local politics, another is about business\u2014but, under the surface, the arguments use the same tricks over and over again. If you learn to spot these tricks, you\u2019ll also learn to spot the right answer. (You\u2019ll also […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,873,929,52871,930,2,10],"tags":[],"yst_prominent_words":[],"class_list":["post-15910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-critical-reasoning","category-for-current-studiers","category-gmat-prep","category-gmat-strategies","category-gmat-study-guide","category-how-to-study","category-verbal-on-gmat"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15910","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/127"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15910"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15910\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15966,"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15910\/revisions\/15966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15910"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15910"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15910"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manhattanprep.com\/gmat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=15910"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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\n![\"Chelsey](\"https:\/\/cdn2.manhattanprep.com\/gre\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/19\/2015\/11\/chelsey-cooley-150x150.jpg\" "\\"Chelsey")
<\/a>\u00a0is a Manhattan Prep instructor based in Seattle, Washington.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em><\/i><\/b>Chelsey always followed her heart when it came to her education. Luckily, her heart led her straight to the perfect background for GMAT and GRE teaching: she has undergraduate degrees in mathematics and history, a master\u2019s degree in linguistics, a 790 on the GMAT, and a perfect 170\/170 on the GRE.\u00a0<\/em><\/i>Check out Chelsey\u2019s upcoming GMAT prep offerings here<\/a>.<\/em><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"