by tommywallach Sat Dec 06, 2014 4:04 pm
Hey Franalej,
This is a common misunderstanding of independence. Independence relates to issues within a single event structure (i.e. a die or a coin, separately) that could also be dependent. For example, each roll of a die is independent. But if I pull a marble from a hat and don't replace it, the next pull is NOT independent from the first pull.
But two separate events like this are ALWAYS independent. The thing to remember is this: If there's a 50% chance of rain tomorrow and a 50% chance of me eating a turkey sub, does that mean there's a 100% chance of one OR the other happening? No! Of course not! This is why the simple addition doesn't work. It doesn't even make sense!
Clear?
-t